Slumping Hard

The Wildcard standings and run production of teams are changing as drastically as the weather. Just one week ago, the Philadelphia area was baking in 90-plus degree heat and the Phillies were 8-6 in the month of August, winning their last three series against such division foes as the Marlins, Braves, and Nationals. They had outscored their August opponents 71 to 56 in 14 games, and Chase Utley was pacing back and forth through the dugout with a bat in his hands, still forbidden from swinging it.

Now, just one week later, Phillies fans are wearing jackets and coats to night games. The team has dropped their last two series, losing two of three on the road in Pittsburgh and two of three at home to the Dodgers, both of whom have been slacking offensively all season. They’ve been outscored 51 to 31 in their past six games. Chase Utley was given clearance to swing a bat after fracturing the fourth metacarpal bone in his right hand off a nasty pitch from Nationals starter John Lannan. Cole Hamels hit the disabled list with a left elbow strain. Shane Victorino was activated from the disabled list. One goes down, one comes up.

These past three games have been the Phillies best shot to gain ground in the Wildcard. With the Wildcard-leading Padres playing the NL East-leading Mets, these past three games were a win-win situation for the Phillies. If the Phillies win and the Padres lose, we gain a game in the Wildcard standings. If the Phillies win and the Mets lose, we gain a game in the division. If the Phillies lose, we’ll either stay even in the Wildcard standings or even in the division. But of course, pitching showed its inconsistency and the Phillies dropped two of three at home, mainly thanks to the bullpen handing the lead right back to the Dodgers. In Los Angeles last month, the bullpen pitched a total of 8.1 innings throughout three games and gave up just 2 runs, allowing the bullpen to sport a very respectable 2.22ERA with their collective efforts from six different pitchers. The revolving door of bullpen pitchers stayed open for this most recent series, and 7 pitchers combined to throw 9.1 innings of relief while giving up 14 runs, showing off a disgusting 13.85ERA.

The Phillies lost their three-game set in LA last month but still outslugged the Dodgers 22 hits to 18 in that series. The Phillies were outscored 24-10 this time. So what went wrong?

It’s clear that the bullpen blew this one wide open, but where was the offense?

Since Chase Utley landed on the DL almost a month ago, Ryan Howard has seemingly felt some added pressure. Maybe that explains why he’s missing every ball thrown to him. In this series with the Dodgers, Howard went just 2-10 with one walk. On a good note, he only struck out twice. He’s already walked back to the dugout with his bat in hand 151 times this season, and he’s on pace to break Adam Dunn’s record of 195 strikeouts in a single season. If Howard can learn to be much more disciplined at the plate and lay off those breaking balls, he could turn back into the offensive threat he was in 2006. Personally, I’d like to see Howard hit for average and try to punch the ball in the outfield gaps for long singles and doubles. His power is nice, but it’ll come more naturally if he regains some confidence by just making solid contact and getting on base. He’s putting far too much pressure on himself and it’s wearing him down. Right now, the cleanup spot is almost an automatic out for opposing pitchers.

Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand, Tadahito Iguchi, Greg Dobbs, Wes Helms, Ryan Howard, and Abraham Nunez are all in terrible offensive slumps, going 43 for their last 207 as a whole (.208 BA). The National League’s most potent offense hasn’t been able to get their gears in motion the past few series, and it’s beginning to take its toll. We can only hope that getting Utley back on Monday (barring any setbacks) and the Mets coming to town will ignite the spark back into this team. There may be only 36 regular-season games left until October. A lot can happen over the next six weeks.

Hamels Sidelined, Victorino Activated

Well, it seems as if the Phillies have run into some more bad luck. Cole Hamels missed his start last night after having an MRI exam on his left elbow. Hearing that sentence alone is enough to make you shiver. Hamels told the trainer that he felt some soreness in his pitching elbow after throwing 6.2 innings of shutout ball in Washington last Thursday night. The MRI showed no structural damage to muscles, joints, or ligaments, and he was diagnosed with an elbow strain and hit the 15-day DL last night. The move is retroactive to August 17, so he can be eligible to return to the rotation September 1 at the earliest.

Taking Hamels’ start last night against the Dodgers was JD Durbin, who, despite giving Chris Coste goosebumps during his pre-game bullpen warm-ups, gave up 4 runs in 6 innings and earned the loss in the Dodger’s 15-3 romp of the Phillies, which was thankfully pushed aside by the national sports media so they could focus on the Rangers’ 30-3 killing of the Orioles at Camden Yards.

Fabio Castro will take the mound this afternoon for his first major league start. After being acquired as a Rule-5 pick from Texas last season, Castro spent the remainder of the year in the major leagues, being used primarily as a mop-up role reliever. The organization made the decision to turn him into a starter this past offseason, and he posted a 1-4 record with a 4.23 ERA in AAA Ottawa this year. Hold a mirror up to the screen to see his stats as a reliever (4-1, 3.24 ERA).

What a strange season it has been. Just five months ago, the Phillies had one too many starters going into Spring Training. The rotation was a formidable one – Myers, Hamels, Garcia, Moyer, Eaton, and Lieber. Of course, Lieber whined when he landed in the bullpen and only made two appearances before being promoted back to the starting rotation while opening-day starter Brett Myers was moved to the bullpen in a move that shocked Braves veteran John Smoltz. Today, their rotation is as follows: Kendrick, Durbin, Castro, Moyer, and Lohse. The only Phillies starting pitcher who opened the season with the team who has not hit the disabled list is 44-year old Jamie Moyer. Who would have thought?

In similar news, Padres ace and Cy Young candidate Chris Young will miss his next scheduled start Sunday in Philadelphia. He experienced lower back pain after his unorthodox 5 inning, 4 run outing against the Mets Tuesday night. This bodes well for the Phillies as long as their offense can wake up.

Shane Victorino was activated from the 15-day DL last night and took Hamels’ spot on the active roster. He went 0-4 and just missed gunning down a Dodger at the plate, but catcher Chris Coste couldn’t hang onto the ball after it skipped through the wet grass. Backup outfielder Chris Roberson was optioned back to AAA Ottawa and RHP Geoff Geary was brought back to the show.

Injury Replacements Shine

It’s obvious that three big sparks in the Phillies lineup have been sitting on the bench the past week and will continue to do so for several games to come. Chase Utley, sidelined with a broken bone in his right hand, will likely be out until later this month or early September. Michael Bourn is on a similar timetable as Utley, but he may need an extra week or two before completing a rehab assignment and returning to the team. Shane Victorino has been progressing well and could start a rehab assignment as early as this weekend.

But credit needs to be given to the three players who have stepped into their roles and flourished – Tadahito Iguchi, Jayson Werth, and Chris Roberson. Keeping in mind that Iguchi is still new to the team and the National League, Werth had been abruptly activated from a two-month stint on the disabled list, and Roberson had been called up from AAA for his first 2007 stint in the majors, they’ve done remarkably well.

Following are some side-by-side comparisons. Utley hit the DL on July 26, and Iguchi made his Phillies debut at second base two days later on July 28. These numbers show Utley’s stats in his last ten games before getting injured and Iguchi’s first ten games as a Phillie.

There’s a bit of a dropoff with RBI between Utley and Iguchi’s last ten games, but Iguchi has shown that he can step right into a role that no one expected he could fill. Of course, no one can truly take the place of Chase Utley, but Iguchi is performing well above average, both offensively and defensively.

Next, we take a look at Victorino and Bourn in comparison with Roberson and Werth. Here are the numbers for Victorino and Bourn’s last six games before they both hit the DL July 31.

Both were hitting for average and getting on base despite the lack of driving runs home. However, Roberson and Werth have stepped in nicely. In the six games they played since Victorino and Bourn were injured:

Roberson is in the midst of an 0-7 mini-slump and hasn’t gotten a hit since the final game at Wrigley Field last Thursday, but he seems to have made a solid effort in trying to make up for it with his defense. Werth has been an unexpected threat, both at the plate and in the outfield. If these two players can keep producing, the Phillies offense will be very much intact by the time all three injured players return.

Victorino and Bourn are both known for their speed both on the bases and in the field, which allows them to cover more ground than your average outfielder. While Roberson and Werth don’t have the same level of speed, they’ve both managed to make great defensive plays:

Roberson, playing right field, made a great diving catch in Milwaukee to rob Kevin Mench of an RBI or two to preserve Philadelphia’s 5-4 lead through six innings in what ended up being a painful 6-5 Milwaukee win.

Last night, Roberson was inserted into the game to play center field as a late-game defensive replacement, and immediately snagged a line drive off the bat of Marlins’ third baseman Miguel Cabrera to rob him of a double. Even Harry Kalas sounded impressed.

Werth made a great dive, snapping his belt while robbing Prince Fielder of extra bases while the Phillies were down 5-0 in the fifth inning Sunday afternoon at Miller Park. The Phillies would later come back to tie the game in the ninth off lights-out closer Francisco Cordero, and would rally on to win in the 11^th inning off an RBI double by Wes Helms.