Great Day for Phillies Fans

Brad Lidge had a shaky outing tonight but succeeded, notching his 28th save in as many chances. With both the Mets and Marlins losing earlier today, tonight's win put the Phillies at 61-50 -- 2.5 games ahead of Florida and three in front of New York.

Some more positives to think about during tomorrow's off-day:

- Brett Myers has a 2.50 ERA in three starts since returning to the major leagues
- Shane Victorino continued his hot streak with a late-game homerun that was the deciding factor
- Brad Lidge overcame his demons to remain perfect in save opportunities
- The Phillies won two out of three from the resilient Cardinals, and seven of their last eight overall
- Joe Blanton threw seven innings and allowed just one run on Saturday
- Top pitching prospect Carlos Carrasco was promoted to AAA Lehigh Saturday. He threw 6.2 scoreless innings in his first start at Coca-Cola Park
- Jamie Moyer will take the mound Tuesday for the opener of a crucial series at home against the Marlins. He's made 10 career starts against Florida. His record? 10-0.

All is well in Philadelphia right now. Now let's hope Andre Iguodala re-signs with the Sixers this week and we'll be golden.

Bullpen Success Key to Winning

In a surprising turn of events, the Phillies find themselves with the best bullpen in the majors at the All-Star Break.

After suffering through what seemed like an incalculable number of miserable relief appearances from Jose Mesa, Ryan Franklin and Arthur Rhodes over the past few years, the club revamped its bullpen prior to this season by re-signing J.C. Romero, adding resurgent longman Chad Durbin, and trading for the stellar Brad Lidge. With the addition of a healthy Ryan Madson and surprisingly effective Rudy Seanez, the later innings aren’t such a worry anymore.

The pen had boasted a 2.60 ERA through the first month of the season, and it hasn’t faltered much since. Heading into this week’s All-Star festivities in New York, the relievers have combined for a 2.71 ERA to date. That even includes a few major meltdowns by Tom Gordon and recent callup RJ Swindle.

With Gordon currently on the disabled list and Swindle optioned back down to Triple-A Lehigh, Clay Condrey holds the unjust designation as the Phillies’ worst relief pitcher. Despite the distinction, his ERA is a very respectable 3.66, making him the only reliever whose ERA has risen above three.

To the delight of Phillies fans and players thirsty for a championship, this effective bullpen could stay intact for years to come. J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge are under contract for the next four years. Madson, Condrey and Durbin are under club control for several more years. However, Rudy Seanez will be a free agent at the end of this season and Tom Gordon has a club option for 2009 which will almost certainly be declined due to his lingering shoulder and elbow problems.

The Phillies will have two available relief jobs in 2009, and one internal option is lefty starter-turned-reliever Josh Outman waiting in the wings at Double-A Reading. Outman, who posted a combined 3.00 ERA in 159 innings as a starter between Single-A Clearwater and Reading last season, was converted to a reliever as a means to get on the fast track to Citizens Bank Park. He has responded well to the workload shift, posting a 3.20 ERA in Reading this season as a middle reliever. However, it wouldn’t be a surprise for the Phillies to look into established lefty relievers like Colorado’s Brian Fuentes or Kansas City’s Ron Mahay before the trade deadline approaches at the end of this month.

The opportunity for rest this week will be invaluable, as several players could use some time off to heal their bruises and clear their heads. The dog days of summer have been catching up to some relievers, and their performances have been shaky in recent weeks. Chad Durbin has given up five runs in his last three appearances. J.C. Romero’s ERA has risen from 1.59 to 2.17 since suffering a mild groin injury in Atlanta on June 7. But on the other hand, Brad Lidge has been brilliant in closing out all 20 save opportunities. Clay Condrey and Ryan Madson haven’t allowed a run since late June. Maybe the All-Star Break has come at the wrong time for some.

If this bullpen can continue to baffle the opposition late in games, they can become the best group of Phillies relievers since Rheal Cormier, Ryan Madson, Billy Wagner and crew helped the team to second place with a collective 3.71 ERA in 2004.

The last four Phillies teams to finish a season with a bullpen ERA under 3.37 were in 1977 (3.03), 1978 (2.92), 1980 (3.28) and 1983 (3.36). All four teams finished the season in first place, and the 1980 and 1983 teams advanced to the World Series. As we all know, the 1980 team sat alone atop the world and brought the parade down Broad Street. While bullpens are important and often overlooked by fans, history has shown that this is one statistic Phillies fans should be excited about.

The Moyer Effect

Here’s an interesting little tidbit that was pointed out to me the other day. Jamie Moyer has spent 21 seasons in the major leagues. In seven of those seasons, he finished the year with an ERA of 5.00 or higher. Not too impressive, huh?

Well, take a closer look. Here are his numbers in those seven seasons:

1986 - 5.05 ERA
1987 - 5.10 ERA
1991 - 5.74 ERA
1995 - 5.21 ERA
2000 - 5.49 ERA
2004 - 5.21 ERA
2007 - 5.01 ERA
Overall – 5.20 ERA

And his numbers in the years directly following those forgettable seven seasons:

1988 - 3.48 ERA
1993 - 3.43 ERA
1996 - 4.50 ERA
2001 - 3.43 ERA
2005 - 4.28 ERA
Overall – 3.76 ERA

The only exception to that list is allowing his 1993 stats to represent his follow-up season to 1991, considering he spent most of the ’92 season in Triple-A Toledo, an affiliate of the Detroit Tigers after being released by the Chicago Cubs.

Moyer averages about three decent years of quality pitching inbetween his 5+ ERA seasons, and this pattern has been holding true throughout his entire career.

Following these off-years, he has always bounced back with a season in which he posts an ERA of what is referred to as a ‘quality start’ (6.0 IP, 3 ER per start = 4.50 ERA), or far below it. If this pattern continues to hold true (and his arm stays healthy), it looks like we may have some hope for the back end of the rotation in 2008. Let’s just hope that Jamie has another 200 innings in him before he hangs up the cleats.

Minor League Chatter

Last week I had the opportunity to attend Phillies College Media Day at Citizens Bank Park. I encourage anyone interested in sports journalism to attend next year. The Phillies brought in speakers such as ESPN Head Baseball Writer Jayson Stark, 6-ABC’s Gary Papa, Comcast SportsNet’s Leslie Gudel, Phillies Radio Broadcaster Scott Franzke, and Philadelphia Inquirer Phillies Beat Writer Todd Zolecki, just to name a few.

At the end of the day, we had the opportunity to take part in a mock press conference with Minor League Director Steve Noworyta. The Q&A portion of the meeting began with the future of catching prospect Jason Jaramillo.

“He made a statement this offseason, and I believe we have a guy that could step right in,” said Noworyta, discussing the options behind the plate if Carlos Ruiz or Chris Coste should hit the DL during the regular season.

The six-foot tall, 200 pound catcher who batted .271 with six homeruns and 56 RBI last season in Triple-A Ottawa has an invitation to Spring Training and will report to Clearwater on Thursday. However, Noworyta expects Jaramillo to kick off the season in Lehigh Valley, serving as the starting catcher for the brand new Triple-A Ironpigs.

Many fans have been up in arms during the offseason about Pat Gillick’s lackluster starting pitching acquisitions. Despite bringing in options such as Chad Durbin, Shane Youman, Travis Blackley, Lincoln Holdzkom, and perhaps even Kris Benson within the next few days, the struggling Adam Eaton is still currently slated as the #5 starter. Based on Eaton’s career-worst numbers from 2007 and his late-season stint on the disabled list, many wonder if he has been pitching injured.

“If [Eaton] goes down, Josh Outman and Andrew Carpenter are in serious consideration,” said Noworyta. “We might have a few Kyle Kendricks that could help us out.”

Outman, a 23 year-old southpaw, struck out 117 in 117.1 innings in single-A Clearwater last season while earning 10 wins and posting a very respectable 2.45 ERA. He was rewarded with a late callup to Double-A Reading where he was forced to make some adjustments, posting a 4.50 ERA in seven starts.

Carpenter, a 22 year-old righty, spent all of 2007 in single-A Clearwater, going 17-6 with a 3.20 ERA in 163 innings. He doesn’t strike out as many as Outman, but he keeps the ball down in the zone and allows less than one homerun per nine innings pitched.

You might be wondering why Carlos Carrasco hasn’t been mentioned yet. After all, he’s one of the only two prospects in the Phillies’ system to have cracked the Baseball Prospectus’ Top 100 Prospects list for 2008 (Joe Savery was ranked at #96).

Noworyta noted that maturity and control are big issues for Carrasco. While spending 2006 and half of 2007 split between single-A Lakewood and single-A Clearwater and going 18-8 with a 2.44 ERA in 38 starts over that season and a half, Carrasco struggled at the next level after earning a mid-2007 call-up to double-A Reading. His ERA spiked to 4.86 while allowing 46 walks in just 70.1 innings. The 68th overall ranked Carrasco is scheduled to begin his 2008 campaign in double-A Reading.

With Jamie Moyer likely retiring after 2008, Adam Eaton off the books after 2009, and Brett Myers’ newfound love for closing out games, is it too early to imagine a 2010 Phillies rotation of Hamels, Carrasco, Savery, Kendrick and Outman? With all-stars like Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard still under contract, I can't imagine a more outstanding example of player development in the farm system.

2008 Predictions

Well, we still have nine days until pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater, but it looks like there are already some early predictions out there.

In this new column, I’ll be recording and updating projections from writers and analysts regarding team standings, individual stats, and so on. I’m sure this will be updated much more frequently as soon as Baseball Tonight slides back into its regular spring/summer time slot.

Today, we have MLB.com reporter Jim Molony taking a stab at the NL East. He projects the final standings to be:

1. Phillies
2. Mets
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

He notes that players’ health is imperative in the Phillies repeating as division champs and reiterates the Mets' need for Pedro Martinez to return to his old self, otherwise the Santana acquisition won't have as much punch as it would if there was a very solid #2 right behind him.

I'll be keeping an eye out for the opinions and predictions of ESPN's baseball crew. Let's have fun with this and see how often the professionals go back on their word.

Third Base A Place For Concern

The injury bug bit the Phillies hard in 2007. Somehow, third base escaped its bite. During a season that sent 16 players to the disabled list (including five who ended the season there), the Phillies’ platoon of Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs, and Abraham Nunez on the hot corner managed to stay healthy.

The trio combined to start 161 games at third, with one-game hero Russell Branyan getting the lone leftover start. Batting only as third basemen, the three combined for 609 at-bats, 155 hits, 32 doubles, two triples, 10 homeruns, 73 RBI and struck out 116 times while putting up a very modest .255 batting average and .320 on-base percentage. Defensively, the platoon committed 25 errors in 1453.1 innings, resulting in a .949 fielding percentage.

Is this level of production acceptable from what is typically a slugger’s position? The total salary of the platoon in 2007 ($4.36 million) makes it hard to believe that third base is anything but a feeble work in progress.

Let’s take a look at the Diamondback’s platoon in 2007.

Chad Tracy was originally slated to be the everyday third baseman, but an injury-riddled season forced an early call-up which presented Mark Reynolds with his rookie season. Batting as third basemen, the duo started 143 games while accumulating 516 at-bats, 143 hits, 36 doubles, six triples, 18 homeruns, 82 RBI and struck out 155 times while posting a .277 batting average and .354 on-base percentage.

Although Tracy and Reynolds combined to start 18 fewer games than the Phillies’ trio, the duo from Arizona outperformed the Phillies’ platoon in every offensive category except at-bats and hits, not to mention their defensive edge from posting a .954 fielding percentage, and their smaller total salary at $3.13 million.

Having position prospects in the farm system will always be an advantage, just like that of the Diamondback’s situation with Tracy and Reynolds. But with the trade that brought closer Brad Lidge to Philadelphia, double-A Reading waved goodbye to the Phillies’ only third base prospect, Mike Costanzo.

This begs the question – what will third base look like in 2009?

Abraham Nunez’s option for 2008 was declined, and he just signed a minor league deal with the Milwaukee Brewers after spending the offseason likely making sure he hadn’t accidentally set his phone to ‘silent’. Wes Helms has a $3.75 million club option for 2009, which, if he puts up numbers similar to his 2007 campaign, will likely be declined. That leaves only Greg Dobbs, a utility man who turns 30 this July and will become arbitration-eligible for the first time.

The farm system is depleted for infield prospects, unless the call is made to move promising single-A second base prospect Adrian Cardenas to third, which doesn’t seem like a possibility right now.

It seems as if the crystal ball has seen Cardenas’ future as nothing more than trade bait in a year or two, since his path is completely blocked until 2014 by Chase Utley and the seven-year contract he inked last winter.

The 2009 third base free agent class contains a few noteworthy names like Hank Blalock, Joe Crede, Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones, but all come with a risk of injury.

If all the club options are declined after the 2008 season and none of the free agents are re-signed (Burrell, Moyer, Lidge), the Phillies will see $36 million coming off the books for 2009, leaving many holes but creating many possibilities. The future of third base in Philadelphia is just about as unknown as Jose Mesa’s real age, and I don’t think ol’ Joe Table is going to tell us anytime soon.