The Moyer Effect

Here’s an interesting little tidbit that was pointed out to me the other day. Jamie Moyer has spent 21 seasons in the major leagues. In seven of those seasons, he finished the year with an ERA of 5.00 or higher. Not too impressive, huh?

Well, take a closer look. Here are his numbers in those seven seasons:

1986 - 5.05 ERA
1987 - 5.10 ERA
1991 - 5.74 ERA
1995 - 5.21 ERA
2000 - 5.49 ERA
2004 - 5.21 ERA
2007 - 5.01 ERA
Overall – 5.20 ERA

And his numbers in the years directly following those forgettable seven seasons:

1988 - 3.48 ERA
1993 - 3.43 ERA
1996 - 4.50 ERA
2001 - 3.43 ERA
2005 - 4.28 ERA
Overall – 3.76 ERA

The only exception to that list is allowing his 1993 stats to represent his follow-up season to 1991, considering he spent most of the ’92 season in Triple-A Toledo, an affiliate of the Detroit Tigers after being released by the Chicago Cubs.

Moyer averages about three decent years of quality pitching inbetween his 5+ ERA seasons, and this pattern has been holding true throughout his entire career.

Following these off-years, he has always bounced back with a season in which he posts an ERA of what is referred to as a ‘quality start’ (6.0 IP, 3 ER per start = 4.50 ERA), or far below it. If this pattern continues to hold true (and his arm stays healthy), it looks like we may have some hope for the back end of the rotation in 2008. Let’s just hope that Jamie has another 200 innings in him before he hangs up the cleats.