The Moyer Effect

Here’s an interesting little tidbit that was pointed out to me the other day. Jamie Moyer has spent 21 seasons in the major leagues. In seven of those seasons, he finished the year with an ERA of 5.00 or higher. Not too impressive, huh?

Well, take a closer look. Here are his numbers in those seven seasons:

1986 - 5.05 ERA
1987 - 5.10 ERA
1991 - 5.74 ERA
1995 - 5.21 ERA
2000 - 5.49 ERA
2004 - 5.21 ERA
2007 - 5.01 ERA
Overall – 5.20 ERA

And his numbers in the years directly following those forgettable seven seasons:

1988 - 3.48 ERA
1993 - 3.43 ERA
1996 - 4.50 ERA
2001 - 3.43 ERA
2005 - 4.28 ERA
Overall – 3.76 ERA

The only exception to that list is allowing his 1993 stats to represent his follow-up season to 1991, considering he spent most of the ’92 season in Triple-A Toledo, an affiliate of the Detroit Tigers after being released by the Chicago Cubs.

Moyer averages about three decent years of quality pitching inbetween his 5+ ERA seasons, and this pattern has been holding true throughout his entire career.

Following these off-years, he has always bounced back with a season in which he posts an ERA of what is referred to as a ‘quality start’ (6.0 IP, 3 ER per start = 4.50 ERA), or far below it. If this pattern continues to hold true (and his arm stays healthy), it looks like we may have some hope for the back end of the rotation in 2008. Let’s just hope that Jamie has another 200 innings in him before he hangs up the cleats.

Minor League Chatter

Last week I had the opportunity to attend Phillies College Media Day at Citizens Bank Park. I encourage anyone interested in sports journalism to attend next year. The Phillies brought in speakers such as ESPN Head Baseball Writer Jayson Stark, 6-ABC’s Gary Papa, Comcast SportsNet’s Leslie Gudel, Phillies Radio Broadcaster Scott Franzke, and Philadelphia Inquirer Phillies Beat Writer Todd Zolecki, just to name a few.

At the end of the day, we had the opportunity to take part in a mock press conference with Minor League Director Steve Noworyta. The Q&A portion of the meeting began with the future of catching prospect Jason Jaramillo.

“He made a statement this offseason, and I believe we have a guy that could step right in,” said Noworyta, discussing the options behind the plate if Carlos Ruiz or Chris Coste should hit the DL during the regular season.

The six-foot tall, 200 pound catcher who batted .271 with six homeruns and 56 RBI last season in Triple-A Ottawa has an invitation to Spring Training and will report to Clearwater on Thursday. However, Noworyta expects Jaramillo to kick off the season in Lehigh Valley, serving as the starting catcher for the brand new Triple-A Ironpigs.

Many fans have been up in arms during the offseason about Pat Gillick’s lackluster starting pitching acquisitions. Despite bringing in options such as Chad Durbin, Shane Youman, Travis Blackley, Lincoln Holdzkom, and perhaps even Kris Benson within the next few days, the struggling Adam Eaton is still currently slated as the #5 starter. Based on Eaton’s career-worst numbers from 2007 and his late-season stint on the disabled list, many wonder if he has been pitching injured.

“If [Eaton] goes down, Josh Outman and Andrew Carpenter are in serious consideration,” said Noworyta. “We might have a few Kyle Kendricks that could help us out.”

Outman, a 23 year-old southpaw, struck out 117 in 117.1 innings in single-A Clearwater last season while earning 10 wins and posting a very respectable 2.45 ERA. He was rewarded with a late callup to Double-A Reading where he was forced to make some adjustments, posting a 4.50 ERA in seven starts.

Carpenter, a 22 year-old righty, spent all of 2007 in single-A Clearwater, going 17-6 with a 3.20 ERA in 163 innings. He doesn’t strike out as many as Outman, but he keeps the ball down in the zone and allows less than one homerun per nine innings pitched.

You might be wondering why Carlos Carrasco hasn’t been mentioned yet. After all, he’s one of the only two prospects in the Phillies’ system to have cracked the Baseball Prospectus’ Top 100 Prospects list for 2008 (Joe Savery was ranked at #96).

Noworyta noted that maturity and control are big issues for Carrasco. While spending 2006 and half of 2007 split between single-A Lakewood and single-A Clearwater and going 18-8 with a 2.44 ERA in 38 starts over that season and a half, Carrasco struggled at the next level after earning a mid-2007 call-up to double-A Reading. His ERA spiked to 4.86 while allowing 46 walks in just 70.1 innings. The 68th overall ranked Carrasco is scheduled to begin his 2008 campaign in double-A Reading.

With Jamie Moyer likely retiring after 2008, Adam Eaton off the books after 2009, and Brett Myers’ newfound love for closing out games, is it too early to imagine a 2010 Phillies rotation of Hamels, Carrasco, Savery, Kendrick and Outman? With all-stars like Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard still under contract, I can't imagine a more outstanding example of player development in the farm system.

2008 Predictions

Well, we still have nine days until pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater, but it looks like there are already some early predictions out there.

In this new column, I’ll be recording and updating projections from writers and analysts regarding team standings, individual stats, and so on. I’m sure this will be updated much more frequently as soon as Baseball Tonight slides back into its regular spring/summer time slot.

Today, we have MLB.com reporter Jim Molony taking a stab at the NL East. He projects the final standings to be:

1. Phillies
2. Mets
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

He notes that players’ health is imperative in the Phillies repeating as division champs and reiterates the Mets' need for Pedro Martinez to return to his old self, otherwise the Santana acquisition won't have as much punch as it would if there was a very solid #2 right behind him.

I'll be keeping an eye out for the opinions and predictions of ESPN's baseball crew. Let's have fun with this and see how often the professionals go back on their word.